The Martingale Theory and Its Impact on Table Games

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Many betting concepts and theories have existed through the generations, but only a few have managed to stand the test of time. One of the most popular theories, which remains so today, is the Martingale system. Originating in 18^th century France, a nation better known for its cuisine in the US and the rest of the world, this approach was originally conceived for a game where bettors wager on the likelihood of a coin toss being heads or tails – a genuine 50/50 selection.

The Martingale theory required bettors to double the size of their wager after every losing coin toss, which paid out 1:1 for every bet. In doing so, if they won the second coin toss, they would recover their previous losses and earn one unit of profit, equal to the size of the original bet.

How Martingale systems have been adopted in the casino world

The principle of the Martingale theory has been applied to two leading table games through the decades, the first of which is blackjack, also known as 21. When played with an optimal ‘basic’ strategy, the card game of blackjack carries one of the smallest house edges of any casino game. This approach can cut the game’s house edge to as small as 0.5%, making it ripe for the Martingale system.

A blackjack player would look to double their stake after each losing hand, until they land a winning hand at odds of 1:1 (or even 3:2 or 6:5 if that winning hand happens to be a blackjack).

There are one or two flaws with Martingale theory in blackjack though. Martingale requires you to stick to a rigid betting system per hand. That means doubling down or taking insurance against the prospect of a dealer having blackjack is off limits. That’s because double down and insurance bets require you to double your initial stake per hand, further increasing your bet sizing and eating further into your bankroll should the cards not fall in your favor.

The Martingale system has also been applied to another iconic table game: roulette. Although this wheel-based game continues to develop new and immersive variants, Martingale is still a strategy many roulette players like to deploy today. Even in the American version of roulette, which includes an extra green double zero pocket, most players still see this system as their best plan of attack, especially when placing outside bets which aim to cover almost half of the roulette wheel.

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The probability of the ball landing on red or black – as well as odd or even – is around 48.6% in European roulette and 47.4% in American roulette. Although the latter carries a greater house edge of around 2.6%, Martingale is the closest players can get to a ‘system’ for 50/50 casino games – or as close to 50/50 as possible.

The innate flaws of Martingale

The biggest flaw with the Martingale theory is that it relies on players having limitless pots of cash to play with. When used on 50/50 bets – or as close to it as possible – the likelihood is that players will recoup their losses eventually. However, it often takes some time to do so.

For example, a player may bet on the ball landing on a red number for several spins after the ball had landed on black numbers for eight spins in succession. Many players think that because the result has been black x times in a row, it must be red next time. This is something that’s known in the trade as “Monte Carlo fallacy”.

The chance of the ninth spin being red is no different to the first or the eighth spin. To think otherwise is simply a form of cognitive bias. It’s just the variance of probability over the long term.

So, although the Martingale system helps to provide a semblance of structure to your gameplay, it’s still an approach that must be used sensibly.

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